Latest opinion poll in Catalunya

As I've mentioned here and here, unofficial referenda on independence are due to take place in 161 municipalities in Catalunya this coming Sunday.

An opinion poll by OUC was published over the weekend, and the results are very encouraging:

     

In the Arenys de Munt referendum in September, the Yes vote was 96.2% on a turnout of 41% ... which represents an absolute figure of 39.4%. So this poll shows that opinion in Catalunya as a whole is even more firmly in favour of independence than in that single town.

The second thing, and something that surprises me, is the very high percentage of people who said that they would not vote; nearly a quarter. If that remained the case in a Catalunya-wide official vote on independence it would mean that the Yes percentage would be between 66.8% and 76.4% of the vote, depending on how the don't knows would split. If the don't knows are factored out, the Yes vote would be 73.9%.

In any referendum there will be those that vote Yes, those that vote No and a group that doesn't mind one way or the other. If they did, they'd get out and vote. But there is something very satisfying about getting an absolute majority of the electorate as a whole.
 

     

 
Now we just need to see if the results on Sunday match this poll. The sample size was 2,600, so the margin of error should be lower than the polls we are used to here ... 2% instead of 3%

The poll found that a total of 82.6% want to have an official referendum on independence. As I see it, the key factor in the impending ruling of the Spanish Constitutional Court will not be over the "headline issue" of whether Catalunya can call it self a "nation" or not. The key part of the Catalan Statute of Autonomy is whether the Catalan government is able to legally hold official consultative referenda.

If that principle is upheld (the Spanish State was able to block the Ibarretxe referendum in Euskadi this time last year) the EU had better start shuffling the chairs to make room for an extra member next year.

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4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Interesting, informative and analytical blog. (Better than Llais y sais would ever do). I believe the new EU word - coined by the late Neil McCormick MEP - is 'internal enlargement'.

I hear Jill Evans MEP has been invited to observe the poll by Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya and will be blogging and tweeting her impressions.

Do you think this vote will be reported by the mainstream Welsh media, or is that too subversive?

Anonymous said...

.. Welsh media don't do politics unless it's related to hospital closures.

They won't cover the Catalan referendum 'cos the big boys in London haven't covered it and so given it the intellectual OK.

It's not so much that the issue is too subversive but that Welsh journalists don't read the Welsh press or Welsh publications except the Western Mail. It's very difficult then to have an intellectual debate with a brick wall. These issues are not within their radar.

Pity - it's a good story and will have more baring on the EU and the lived of people in Wales than similar international stories from Sri Lanka, Tibet or Bolivia (not that I'm against those stories either). It seems if the Catalans want some publicity they'll have to start killing people. Being constitutional democrats won't get them airtime - not 'sexy' enough.

MH said...

Anon #1, I'm pleased to hear that Jill is doing that. If I'd have known, I'd have made it more prominent. Do you have a link?

Anon #2, That's part of what this blog is for. The Scotsman has covered the story here and here.

The FT did so here and here. It was from one of the comments on the last link that I picked up the poll story.

Miquel Strubell said...

Hello.
I'm the author of the latest survey on attitudes towards self-determination and independence in Catalonia.
Please feel free to ask me for more details!
Miquel

mstrubell at uoc.edu

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